Is Brandon Belt ready for the Big Show?
No, no...not him. The Major Leagues.
There have been a number of articles written lately on that very subject (like here, and here) and a majority of them seem to say the same thing: he’s probably ready, but it’s smarter to keep him in the minor leagues for now.
I don’t agree. For months I’ve said that Belt should be the Giants’ opening day first baseman, and my opinion hasn’t changed. While those who don’t agree with me may have genuine concerns, I don’t think those concerns hold up.
Just about all the “reasons” given why Belt shouldn’t start in the big leagues aren’t reasons at all, but rather flimsy justifications. It’s akin to saying “We can’t have a picnic today, what if it rains?” while the sky is blue, or “I can’t buy those shoes, what if my toes get cut off and they don’t fit?” (Shocking that I’d use a shoe reference, I know).
There seem to be four main concerns when it comes to Belt: service time, team needs, roster questions, and general readiness. Let’s go through them all:
Limit his service time, save money down the line: This is the one I hear/see most of all. Limiting Belt’s Major League service time will push back the date when he’s eligible for salary arbitration; therefore, the Giants would save money and control him for a longer period of time.
That argument would make a lot of sense if we were talking about the Royals, the Pirates, the Indians, or any other small market team. Those are the kinds of teams that need to worry about saving money down the line and controlling their players for as long as they possibly can, since their best players are likely to bolt for greener (as in $$) pastures as soon as they hit free agency.
The Giants aren’t in this position. They’re coming off of a World Series win, will likely sell out the majority of their home games this year, and (as Buster Olney said) are flush with cash. While they may want to keep their payroll at a reasonable level, they’re not afraid to spend money. Plus by the time the Giants will have to pay big money to Belt, they’ll be free from the albatrosses collectively known as the Zito/Rowand deals. The Giants learned from those contracts and have spent their money more wisely over the past few years, so it’s probably safe to assume they won’t be handing out any more killer deals in the near future.
Lastly, the service time argument begs the question: who cares? It doesn’t make much sense to me to worry about the team’s salary structure 3 or 4 years down the line when they’re defending a championship this year. If Belt makes the team better by being on it right now, what does it matter that he’ll make more money at an earlier time? The point is to win again in 2011, not plan ahead for 2015 (plus, what an awful slogan that’d be: “Your 2011 San Francisco Giants, Planning for a Prudent Financial Future.”)
The Giants don’t need him right now: I’m sorry, what? Did I slip into a coma and miss the part where the Giants became an offensive juggernaut? No? Good, I was worried. I thought I had some crazy, coma-inducing medical condition there for a minute.
The Giants’ lineup is better than most outsiders give them credit for, but there is still some cause for concern. They have to hope for the following to happen:
- Pablo Sandoval gets back to his ’09 form
- Aubrey Huff has a repeat of last year
- Miguel Tejada has something left in the tank
- Pat Burrell rebounds from an atrocious World Series performance
- Mark DeRosa and Freddy Sanchez stay healthy
That’s a whole lot of hoping. Obviously, nothing is a given. But having a bat like Belt’s in there every day would help alleviate some of the worry that comes with a lineup so full of questions. He’d give the team another left-handed bat, which they also need, as well as provide more pop from the bottom-half (where he’d be penciled in, at least to start). It wouldn’t weaken the team defensively, either: Belt is the best defensive first baseman in the organization, and Huff (who’d take over in left) proved last year he’s more than adequate as an outfielder.
Belt would likely take playing time away from Burrell and DeRosa if he starts the season with San Francisco, and no offense to either of them but I’d rather see Belt in the lineup. Burrell may be better served as a clubhouse mentor/part time player at this point, and DeRosa is a better utility man than everyday guy. Belt is the best option of the three, both offensively and defensively.
It’s not worth the roster headache: Please. To make room for Belt, the Giants would likely part with two of the following players: Aaron Rowand, Travis Ishikawa, and Nate Schierholtz. Rowand is a lost cause, Ishikawa is a pinch-hit specialist, and Schierholtz is a defensive replacement. It’d be a toss-up between Ishikawa and Schierholtz as to who should stay, but it’s not like the Giants would be losing potential all-stars in any scenario.
He’s not ready: I’m going to sound like Bruce Jenkins here for a minute. Bear with me.
Any doubts I might have had about Belt’s readiness were erased when I saw his at bat against Mark Buehrle last week. Quickly down 0-2 in the count, Belt laid off tough pitches to work the count full before ripping a single to right. It was an impressive at bat for any left-handed batter, let alone a rookie going against a veteran like Buehrle.
Belt’s ready. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he’s more than held his own this spring. Just like Posey last year, Belt is ready for the big leagues right now and the club would be better with him than without him.
I hope the Giants feel the same way.
You make a lot of good points. The point that I would want to stress from the service time angle is that if he starts the season in the majors he will become eligible for free agency 6 years later.
ReplyDeleteIf they wait until he isn't on the roster for 175 days that pushes his number of years with the team to after his 7th season.
The Giants can get one extra year of team control by waiting to bring him up, even if the delay is only 15 days and he comes up in mid to late April. With that said it is really hard to not justify waiting a few weeks to gain an extra year.
Lol @ Pat Burrell needs to rebound from hitting poorly in just 5 games. You are putting way too much weight on those 5 games.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Scott on this one (and usually in most cases :^).
ReplyDeleteI would like to add one more question mark to the list of question marks you listed, that you didn't include: Will Brandon Belt hit as well as hoped, thought?
I am much more positive about Sandoval returning to 2009 form than Belt being a legit hitter. For an example of how an even more sure-fire hitter who didn't produce offensively, look at Matt Weiters, still trying to figure it out after roughly two seasons. And he was rated probably the #1 hitting prospect that season, whereas Belt is somewhere around 10th to 20th, depending on the list.
Pablo was actually Panda-esque through parts of 2010, on and off, in particular, when he dealt with his child custody situation, flying down to Venezuela, and when his mother was nearly killed in the San Bruno pipeline, he was hitting well, then his hitting went down the toilet, until he recovered from that. He actually was on a hot hitting streak when the season ended.
So I'm not worried about Pandoval, unless something else personal hits him hard.
About Burrell, the playoff was small sample sizes, plus I have to throw out that maybe he freezes up in biggest games (nothing horribly wrong with that, happens to most of us). His hitting peripherals, while not stellar, is at least still in the ball park of where he was before, suggesting that he has something in the tank offensively.
About Huff, everyone always point to 2010 as the fluke, but I'm like the only one to point out that his 2010 is much like his 2008, so why isn't the question more like isn't 2009 the fluke? The reason I point that out is because when you examine his batting peripherals for his career, his 2009 was marked by one huge outlier - very low BABIP - which led me to predict that he would have a good season for us in 2010, though I didn't see him reaching 2008's heights, as I thought AT&T would swat his power into the Bay.
I think Huff is ready for bear, and while he probably won't hit as well as he did in 2010, something in the low 800 OPS would be just fine.
Now, the twittering is that Belt made the team as the starting 1B, so I'll also add that people shouldn't be surprised if Belt might get sent down when Ross returns, unless he's the rock star many people thinks he is.
I think he is, with a football coach father, I would think he is probably as mentally tough as they come. Still, young guys sometimes struggle, and while he hit great in the minors, that don't always translate immediately.
People forget, but at the time of Molina's trade, Posey had been on the team roughly 6 weeks and his OPS was in the high 600's. He cooled down greatly after his hot start, so if Ross comes up during such a streak for Belt, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the one sent down.